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Table 5 Simulation results in a domain with ICC = 5%, Pearson correlation X1 and random effect 0.0, number of patients 100, number of centers 5

From: Prediction models for clustered data: comparison of a random intercept and standard regression model

 

Apparent performance

Test performance

 

Standard model

Marginal risk calculation

Conditional risk calculation

Standard model

Marginal risk calculation

Harrell’s C-index †

0.82 (0.742; 0.889)

0.82 (0.743; 0.888)

0.84 (0.752; 0.913)

0.77 (0.718; 0.779)

0.77 (0.719; 0.779)

C-index within clusters ‡

0.82 (0.100)

0.82 (0.096)

0.82 (0.096)

0.77 (0.032)

0.77 (0.032)

Calibration intercept*

-0.00

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.06

Calibration intercept* within clusters ‡

-0.00 (0.295)

-0.00 (0.319)

0.01 (0.000)

-0.01 (0.537)

0.03 (0.545)

Calibration slope (overall)

1.00

0.99

1.05

0.71

0.69

Calibration slope within clusters ‡

1.06 (0.100)

1.01 (0.108)

1.07 (0.000)

0.74 (0.017)

0.72 (0.018)

  1. * With calibration slope equal to 1 (i.e. calibration in the large).
  2. † overall performance (2.5 and 97.5 percentiles).
  3. ‡ median of overall performance from 100 simulations (median of within cluster performances).