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Table 1 Summary of the 15 articles included in the review

From: Developing and validating risk prediction models in an individual participant data meta-analysis

First author and year of publication

First author location

Research aims

Baseline condition of participants

Main outcome(s) of interest for prediction

Approach to identify relevant studies

Number of studies providing IPD (Number requested)

Pagliaro (1994)[29]

Italy

To identify predictors of short-term and sustained Alanine transaminase (ALT) normalization after interferon treatment in adult patients with hepatitis C

Adult patients with transfusion-related or community-acquired

Short term and sustained response (ALT normalization)

Collaborative group

2 (NA)

Heffner (2000)[26]

USA

To determine the predictive accuracy of pH for identifying patients with malignant pleural effusions who will fail pleurodesis

Patients with malignant pleural effusions

Failure of pleurodesis

Literature review

6 (12)

Raboud (2000)[30]

Canada

To determine the ability of intermediate plasma viral load (pVL) measurements to predict virologic outcome at 52 weeks of follow-up in clinical trials of antiretroviral therapy

Patients within a particular range of CD4 cell counts, naive to antiretroviral therapy and not been previously diagnosed with AIDS

Virologic outcome at 52 weeks of follow-up

Collaborative group

3 (NA)

Terwee (2000)[34]

Netherlands

To develop a prognostic tool for patients with unresectable pancreatic cancer to distinguish between low or high probabilities of survival 3 to 9 months after diagnosis.

Patients diagnosed with pancreatic cancer

Overall survival

Literature review

8 (15)

Chau (2004)[24]

United Kingdom

To identify baseline patient- or tumour-related prognostic factors; and to assess whether pre-treatment quality of life predicts survival in patients with locally advanced or metastatic esophago-gastric cancer.

Patients with histologically confirmed inoperable adenocarcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma, or undifferentiated carcinoma of the oesophagus, esophago-gastric junction, or stomach

Overall survival

Collaborative group

3 (NA)

Horn (2005)[27]

Netherlands

Investigate if transcranial doppler monitoring for micro embolic signals, directly after carotid endarterectomy (CEA) identifies patients at risk of developing ischaemic complications.

Carotid endarterectomy patients

Cerebral ischaemic complications, defined as new neurological deficits within 1st week after CEA

Literature review

7 (10)

Nieder (2005)[28]

Germany

Identifying the predictive value of biologically effective dose as function of the risk of myelopathy

Patients with spinal cord retreatment

Development of radiation myelopathy

Literature review

8 (8)

Asia pacific group (2006)[23]

Australia

To investigate the generalisability of current definitions of the metabolic syndrome in Asia-Pacific populations, and assess the prognostic value of metabolic risk factors to discriminate fatal coronary heart disease (CHD) risk

Healthy patients aged 30–75

Fatal CHD within 10 years

Collaborative group

26 (NA)

Sylvester (2006)[33]

Belgium

To predict a superficial bladder cancer patient’s probability of recurrence and progression at one and five years

Stage Ta, T1, and Tis bladder cancer patients who have undergone transurethral resection

Time to first recurrence (disease-free interval) and time to progression to muscle invasive disease

Collaborative group

7 (NA)

Noordzij (2007)[5]

USA

Early prediction of hypocalcaemia after thyroidectomy using parathyroid hormone

Patients undergoing thyroidectomy

Postoperative symptomatic hypocalcaemia

Literature review

9 (15)

Rovers (2007)[31]

Netherlands

To determine the predictors of a prolonged course for children with acute otitis media (AOM) to discriminate between children with and without poor outcomes

Children with AOM

A prolonged course of AOM (pain and/or fever at 3 to 7 days)

Literature review

6 (10)

Schaich (2007)[32]

Germany

To identify prognostic indicators in acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) to provide a new prognostic model for risk stratification of AML patients

AML patients

Overall survival and relapse-free survival

Collaborative group

8 (NA)

Fowkes (2008)[25]

United Kingdom

To determine if the ankle brachial index provides information on the risk of cardiovascular events and mortality independently of the Framingham risk score and can improve risk prediction

Participants of any age and sex derived from a general population

Total and cardiovascular mortality

Literature review

16 (20)

Steyerberg (2008)[18]

Netherlands

To develop prediction model for predicting unfavourable outcome according to the glasgow outcome scale (GOS) at 6 months after traumatic brain injury (TBI)

Patients with moderate or severe TBI (with GOS > = 12)

6-months mortality and unfavourable outcomes defined by 6 months GOS

Collaborative group

11 (NA)

Yap (2008)[35]

United Kingdom

To design a prognostic indicator using demographic information to select patients at risk of dying after myocardial infarction (MI)

Patients at day 45 post-MI up to 2 years

All-cause, arrhythmic and non-arrhythmic cardiac mortality within 2 years

Not stated

4 (unknown)

  1. NA not applicable.