Quantifying errors without random sampling

Table 1 Simplified calculation of foodborne disease incidence.

Infectious Agent	Estimated Total Cases	Observed Cases	Estimated % Foodborne Transmission	Foodborne Incidence
Campylobacter spp	2,453,926	*64,577*	80	1,963,141
Salmonella, nontyphoidal	1,412,498	*37,171*	95	1,341,873
Norwalk-like viruses	*23,000,000*		40	9,200,000
Other	11,763,217			1,309,910
Total for Known Pathogens	38,629,641			13,814,924
Multiplier, observed to total cases		*38.0*
Total cases of gastroenteritis			*210,813,750*
of unknown origin (subtract)			172,184,109
Illness of known etiology, % foodborne (divide)			36%
Foodborne illness, unknown etiology (multiply)			61,986,279
Total foodborne illness (not rounded)			75,801,203

Boldface = parameters with uncertainty distributions in the example. Italics = input parameters (other numbers are calculated within model) An downloadable interactive version of this calculation, which can be used to run the Monte Carlo simulation to estimate total uncertainty, can be accessed via a link in the text.

ISSN: 1471-2288