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Table 1 Estimates of mean diagnosis delay (years) in the cohort of 3521 seroprevalent men who have sex with men diagnosed in London in the period 2009–2013 using the models developed in this paper and by CD4 back-estimation

From: Estimation of delay to diagnosis and incidence in HIV using indirect evidence of infection dates

   By patient ethnicity
Model Overall White Black Mixed/other/unknown
CD4 back-estimationa 2.87 2.59 3.97 3.56
Full biomarker model with uniform priorsb 4.12 3.99 4.58 4.46
Full biomarker model with exponential survival model for diagnosis     
Constant incidence during analysis window, no division by ethnicityc 1.82 (1.64–2.04)
Changing incidence during analysis window, no division by ethnicityc 1.77 (1.59–1.96)
Changing incidence during analysis window, with division by ethnicityc 1.57 (1.41–1.75) 2.91 (1.92–4.76) 2.68 (2.04–3.45)
  1. aMean of point estimates
  2. bMean of posterior expectation in each individual patient
  3. cEstimated as part of model with associated 95% CrI