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Table 2 Estimates of the risk difference

From: Using Bayesian statistics to estimate the likelihood a new trial will demonstrate the efficacy of a new treatment

FirsFirst author e date Nb Events Nb Events Cumulative Evidence Fictive Trial
     Mean posterior estimates of outlier probabilities Estimated risk differencea (95% CrI) Pr. risk diff. Above Additional planned sample size Predictive probability that proportion of failures in the next sample was in the treated compared to the control
Control Treated Control Treated 5% 10% 5% less 10% less
Chareancholvanich 2013–03-02 40 3 40 1 0.0952 0.0476 −0.048 (−0.161; +0,059) 0.464 0.16 - 48.5% 25.6%
Victor 2013–04-26 64 18 61 15 0.2075 0.1650 −0.042 (−0.100; +0.242) 0.444 0.14 125 47.5% 24.0%
Roh 2013–08-03 48 5 42 5 0.1753 0.1517 −0.024 (−0.107; 0.059) 0.267 0.036 90 33.3% 9.8%
Hamilton 2013–08-06 26 8 26 9 0.1944 0.1813 −0.013 (−0.095; 0.069) 0.187 0.018 52 26.3% 6.6%
Boonen 2013–08-10 82 15 86 26 0.1908 0.2218 0.031 (−0.038; 0.101) 0.011 0.00012 168 5.4% 0.5%
Parratte 2013–08-15 20 2 20 4 0.1844 0.2202 0.036 (−0.031; 0.102) 0.0057 0.00003 40 3.8% 0.2%
Chotanaphuti 2013–09-04 40 5 40 2 0.1770 0.1987 0.022 (−0.039; 0.083) 0.010 0.00004 80 5.2% 0.3%
Woolson 2014–03-07 26 10 22 9 0.1925 0.2124 0.020 (−0.039; 0.081) 0.011 0.00005 48 5.6% 0.3%
Kotela 2014–06-28 46 14 49 24 0.2056 0.2474 0.042 (−0.016; 0.101) 0.001 0.000001 95 1.5% <0.0%
Pfitzner 2014–07-16 30 13 60 11 0.2217 0.2388 0.017 (−0.039; 0.073) 0.009 0.00002 90 4.9% 0.2%
Yan 2014–09-14 30 13 30 8 0.2357 0.2406 0.005 (−0.050; 0.060) 0.024 0.00009 60 8.4% 0.4%
Abane 2015–01-09 67 22 59 19 0.2476 0.2495 0.002 (−0.050; 0.054) 0.025 0.00006 126 8.6% 0.4%
Molicnik 2015–03-04 19 4 19 0 0.2463 0.2410 −0.005 (−0.057; 0.045) 0.042 0.00013 38 11.2% 0.5%
  1. *Negative values favour the experimental treatment. Number of patients in the control (n. ctr) and experimental (n. exp) groups; number of events (ev. ctr and ev. exp); credibility interval (ctrCrI); probability (Pr)
  2. Estimation of the probabilities that the proportion of outliers in the experimental group is below that observed in the control group by 5 and 10% according to the accumulated evidence. Estimation of the Bayes predictive probability that the risk difference be of at least 5 and 10% in favour on the experimental group