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Table 2 DISCOVER trial: primary outcome analysis

From: Interpretation of active-control randomised trials: the case for a new analytical perspective involving averted events

Original analysis on rate ratio scale

Group

No. subjects

PYFU

Incident HIV infections

Incidence rate (per 100 PYFU)

Rate ratio (95% CI)

TDF/FTC

2693

4386

11

0.251

REF

TAF/FTC

2694

4370

6

0.137

0.55 (0.20, 1.48)

Re-analysis using an averted infections framework

Group

PYFU

Observed infections

Predicted infectionsa

Averted infections

Averted infections ratio (95% CI)

TDF/FTC

4386

11

90.4

79.4

REF

TAF/FTC

4370

6

90.0

84.0

1.06 (0.96–1.17)

  1. aApplying counterfactual placebo incidence rate of 2.06 per 100 PYFU (lower 2.5% credibility limit)