Fig. 3
From: Comparing methods to predict baseline mortality for excess mortality calculations
Estimated yearly deaths (for 2020–2023) for 200 randomly selected simulations (black lines) together with the ground truth (red line). A WHO method, B Acosta–Irizarry method, C Linear trend, D Average. Parameters of the methods are shown in column and row headers, and parameters of the scenario are set to the base case values. Note that 2020 is a long year with 53 weeks; therefore, higher values are expected for that year