Table 2 Estimates of the logistic regression models (associations between waist circumference and BMI and diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular disease, and musculoskeletal disease) and potential impact fractions for four scenarios; (1): distribution shift, (2): 1 point BMI reduction, (3): 10% reduction of weight, (4): waist circumference = height/2

Baseline prevalence

(%)

[95% CI]

5.3

[4.7;6.0]

29.0

[27.5;30.5]

6.8

[6.4;7.2]

35.5

[34.8;36.2]

OR (BMI)

[95% CI] (for 1 IQR increase)

1.6

[1.4;1.8]

1.9

[1.6;2.1]

1.1

[1.0;1.2]

1.2

[1.1;1.3]

OR (WC)

[95% CI]

(for 1 IQR increase)

1.9

[1.6;2.4]

2.0

[1.7;2.4]

1.2

[1.0;1.4]

1.2

[1.1;1.3]

Target pop

BMI > 25

BMI > 30

BMI > 25

BMI > 30

BMI > 25

BMI > 30

BMI > 25

BMI > 30

(1)

RD (%) [95% CI]

-1.7

[-2.1;-1.3]

-1.2

[-1.5;-0.9]

-6.8

[-8.1;-5.6]

-4.4

[-5.2;-3.6]

-0.6

[-1.1;-0.2]

-0.4

[-0.7;-0.1]

-2.1

[-3.0;-1.3]

-1.3

[-1.9;-0.8]

PIF (%) [95% CI]

32.3

[25.2;39.3]

22.9

[17.4;28.4]

23.3

[9;27.6]

15

[12.1;17.9]

9

[2.4;15.5]

5.9

[1.5;10.4]

6

[3.6;8.5]

3.8

[2.2;5.3]

(2)

RD (%) [95% CI]

-0.3

[-0.5;-0.1]

-0.1

[-0.2;-0.1]

-0.8

[-1.3;-0.4]

-0.4

[-0.4;-0.3]

-0.1

[-0.2;-0.0]

-0.04

[-0.1;0.0]

-0.3

[-0.4;-0.2]

-0.1

[-0.2;-0.1]

PIF (%) [95% CI]

4.5

[3.4;5.7]

2.4

[1.7;3.1]

3.3

[2.2;4.3]

1.3

[0.8;1.8]

1.5

[0.9;3.8]

0.5

[0.1;0.9]

0.8

[0.5;1.1]

0.3

[0.2;0.4]

(3)

RD (%) [95% CI]

-0.7

[-0.9;-0.5]

-0.4

[-0.6;-0.3]

-2.7

[-3.2;-2.1]

-1.3

[-1.5;-1.0]

-0.2

[-0.4;-0.1]

-0.1

[-0.2;-0.0]

-0.8

[-1.2;-0.5]

-0.4

[-0.5;-0.2]

PIF (%) [95% CI]

13.6

[10.3;16.9]

8.0

[5.8;10.3]

9.2

[7.3;11]

4.4 [3.5; 5.3]

3.5

[-0.9;6.1]

1.8

[0.4;3.1]

2.4

[1.4;3.3]

1.1

[0.6;1.6]

Target pop

WC:height ratio > 0.5

(4)

RD (%) [95% CI]

-2.1

[-3.1;-1]

-7.2

[-8.6;-6]

-0.7

[-1.3;-0.2]

-2.5

[-3.3;-1.7]

PIF (%) [95% CI]

36.4

[27.5;47.3]

24.7

[20.6;28.9]

10.8

[3.3;18.3]

7.1

[4.7;9.4]